{"id":3213,"date":"2026-10-10T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-10T07:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lafagianata.it\/en\/?p=3213"},"modified":"2026-10-10T10:58:29","modified_gmt":"2026-10-10T08:58:29","slug":"where-to-attack-at-il-lombardia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lafagianata.it\/en\/where-to-attack-at-il-lombardia\/","title":{"rendered":"Where to attack at Il Lombardia: the physics of the finale"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Today\u2019s Il Lombardia will be decided in the last twenty-one kilometres, on two climbs. The Civiglio: 4.2 km at 9.7%, cresting 16.7 km from the finish. The San Fermo della Battaglia, second time up: 2.7 km at 7.2%, cresting 5.2 km from Como. In between and afterwards, only descents and the lakeside road.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whoever wants to arrive alone, whether it is Isaac Del Toro, Remco Evenepoel or anyone else, has one question: where to go? The answer depends on two numbers, and physics can work them out. How much you gain on a climb with a few more watts than the others. And how much the chasers can take back after the top.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What an attack on a climb is worth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Extra watts<\/th>At the top of the Civiglio<\/th>At the top of the San Fermo<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
+3%<\/td>22″<\/td>10″<\/td><\/tr>
+5%<\/td>36″<\/td>17″<\/td><\/tr>
+8%<\/td>56″<\/td>26″<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

On the Civiglio every extra percentage point of power is worth about seven seconds, on the San Fermo about three and a half. The Civiglio is steeper and longer: riders climb it at 17.6 km\/h, air resistance barely matters and watts per kilo are everything. It is where legs make the biggest difference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How much the chasers can take back<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Against a single chaser riding at the same power, nothing comes back: every second gained on the climb stays until the finish. Against two riders sharing the work, it does. In the slipstream the air costs a third less, and on the flat two chasers ride at 42.8 km\/h against 40.2 km\/h for a rider alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From the top of the San Fermo to the finish there are 5.2 km, almost all downhill. Even if they were all flat, two chasers would take back 28″ at most. From the top of the Civiglio there are 14 km away from the climbs: counting them all as flat, up to 75″.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How much an attack is worth, and how much the chasers can take back<\/title>Civiglio: +3% 22", +5% 36", +8% 56"; two chasers at most 75"; San Fermo della Battaglia: +3% 10", +5% 17", +8% 26"; two chasers at most 28"<\/desc>