la fagIAnata The numbers sheet Il Lombardia 2026 Saturday, October 10, 2026
Free to quote: “according to la fagIAnata…”. Updated on October 10 at 02:26.
The race
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239 km
From Bergamo to Como, 239 km: Selvino and Ghisallo early on, then Civiglio and San Fermo della Battaglia in the finale.
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16%
The steepest gradient of the route is on the Giovenzana climb (3.6 km at 9.2% on average), which tops out 102.9 km from the finish.
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9.7%
Civiglio, the hardest climb of the finale: 4.2 km at 9.7% on average, up to 14%, cresting 16.7 km from the finish.
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5.2 km
The last summit is San Fermo della Battaglia, 5.2 km from the finish: 2.7 km at 7.2%, up to 10%, then downhill to the line.
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16:40–17:20
Official start at 11:00; finish in Como between 16:40 (42 km/h average) and 17:20 (38 km/h).
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175
The entry list: 175 riders from 25 teams, seven per team; 42 of them are Italian.
Roll of honour
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The last ten editions: 2016 Chaves · 2017 Nibali · 2018 Pinot · 2019 Mollema · 2020 Fuglsang · 2021–2025 Pogačar.
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5 in a row
Tadej Pogačar has won the last five editions (2021–2025): nobody had ever won so many in a row. Fausto Coppi stopped at four (1946–1949).
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5
Tadej Pogačar’s wins: five, the record he shares with Fausto Coppi (1946–1949 and 1954). Then Alfredo Binda with four.
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no Pogačar
Tadej Pogačar, winner of the last five editions, is not on the entry list. There is only one past winner on the list: Bauke Mollema (2019).
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13
Entrants who have already made the podium: Mollema (1st in 2019); Evenepoel (2nd in 2024 and 2025); Bagioli (2nd in 2023); Mas (2nd in 2022); Masnada (2nd in 2021); Bennett (2nd in 2020) and seven more.
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2017
The last Italian winner was Vincenzo Nibali, in 2017: eight editions without an Italian win since.
Recent editions
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42.2 km/h
The fastest winning average since 2009: 42.2 km/h, in 2009 (Gilbert, 242 km). The slowest: 37.2 km/h in 2016.
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3’16”
The biggest winning margin since 2009: 3’16”, Tadej Pogačar in 2024. The winner finished alone 13 times out of 17.
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49%
On average 49% of starters reach the finish. The toughest edition: 2010, 33 finishers out of 195 (17%).
How it can end
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70%
The chance that the winner arrives alone in Como: 70% (45–90%). It happened in six of the seven editions finishing in Como since 2015.
Sources and licences Wikidata (CC0): finishing orders, nationalities and finish towns, in la fagIAnata’s archive. UCI, official results (dataride.uci.ch). RCS Sport: Race Guide 2026 (timetable, climb profiles) and entry list. Forecasts: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0). Past weather: ERA5, Hersbach et al. (2023), Copernicus Climate Change Service, ARCO-ERA5 copy (CC BY 4.0). Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information (2026). Neither the European Commission nor ECMWF is responsible for any use that may be made of the Copernicus information or data it contains. la fagIAnata’s models: the fagIAno (probabilities and scenarios) and form; the method page explains them.
This sheet online: lafagianata.it/en/press/il-lombardia-2026/
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